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Week 6 · posted on X Oct 17, 2026

Week 6 start/sit

Start the Packers' passing game on Sunday night.

Dallas allows +0.398 EPA per dropback, the worst in the NFL.

Matthew Golden: 24.7% target share, 0.638 WOPR.

(nflfastR, Weeks 1-5)

Out: Saquon Barkley vs CAR. Don't start him. Injury statuses get rechecked Sunday morning.

Read the thread on X Pass defense chart

Smash starts

  • Puka Nacua vs ARI: 34.4% target share (just 3 games). ARI allows +0.350 EPA per dropback, 2nd worst.
  • Ashton Jeanty vs BUF: 66.2% carry share. BUF allows 29.1 RB PPR points per game, per our nflverse calc.
  • Matthew Golden vs DAL.

Confident starts

  • Cam Skattebo vs NO: NO allows 32.3 RB PPR points per game, most in the NFL (our nflverse calc)
  • Braelon Allen: Breece Hall is out
  • Tyler Allgeier: Jeremiyah Love is out
  • Garrett Wilson: 30.5% target share

Flex starts

  • Isaiah Likely vs NO: 29.3% target share
  • Carnell Tate @ IND: 0.728 WOPR
  • Travis Kelce vs LAC: Rashee Rice is out
  • Michael Wilson @ LAR: 26.3% target share, 90% of snaps

Bench

  • Mark Andrews: Lamar Jackson is out
  • Omarion Hampton: 4.4% target share, no receiving floor
  • Dalton Schultz: JAX allows 9.5 TE PPR points per game, 26th (our nflverse calc)

Downgrades

  • Woody Marks: JAX allows -0.217 EPA per rush, best run D in the NFL
  • Bhayshul Tuten: HOU allows -0.141 EPA per rush, 8th best
  • Zay Flowers: Lamar out, Flowers cleared but limited all week
  • DeVonta Smith: Hurts out, Smith cleared after missing 2 games

Out: Saquon Barkley vs CAR.

Byes: CIN, DET, MIA, MIN. TNF final: DEN 17, SEA 14.

Points allowed here are PPR, rushing and receiving only, per our nflverse calc.

Injury statuses get rechecked Sunday morning.