Week 10 start/sit, from Week 9 usage and pass-defense EPA through Week 9. The calls are opinion; the numbers are checked.
On bye in Week 10: CHI, DEN, PHI, TB. Thursday is WAS @ NYG. New England and Detroit play at 9:30 AM ET in Munich. Injury statuses get rechecked before Sunday.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba @ LV: 10 of Seattle's 28 targets (36%) in Week 9. Las Vegas allows +0.19 EPA per dropback, #3 softest.
Tyler Warren vs MIA: 7 of 32 targets (22%) on 83% of snaps, and Keenan Allen's 8 targets just left for San Francisco. Miami allows +0.26, the most in the NFL.
Drake Maye @ DET (Munich): 21/38, 299 yards, 3 TD and 3 INT in Week 9. Detroit is #6 softest (+0.17), and New England may have to throw without its top two backs.
Flex plays
Jaylen Warren @ CIN (Sun night): +1.9 rush yards over expected per carry, #1 of 31 RBs with 70+ carries (Next Gen Stats, Weeks 1–9).
Kaleb Johnson vs MIN: 14 of 31 carries after Jacobs got hurt. A volume flex.
Corey Kiner @ DET: the likely lead back if Stevenson and Henderson both sit. Check the Friday report.
Keenan Allen @ DAL: 8 targets for Indianapolis in Week 9, and Dallas is #5 softest (+0.17). A flex if the 49ers say he's ready.
Sit or downgrade
Packers passing game vs MIN: Minnesota allows -0.18 EPA per dropback, the stingiest in the NFL. Downgrade, don't bench Christian Watson: he leads 42 WRs (45+ targets) with 11.9 yards per target on 2.3 yards of separation.
Raiders passing game vs SEA: Fernando Mendoza's first start, and Seattle is #29 of 32 (-0.09).
Cardinals passing game vs LA: the Rams are #28 of 32 (-0.07), and Michael Wilson is out for the season.
Titans passing game vs JAX: Jacksonville is #30 of 32 (-0.10).
Vikings passing game @ GB: Green Bay is #27 of 32 (-0.07), with Kirk Cousins new to the building.
Injury watch (check Friday)
Josh Jacobs (finger): needs surgery; IR is "a possibility," per Matt LaFleur.
Rhamondre Stevenson (knee): expected to miss "the next few weeks," per Ian Rapoport. TreVeyon Henderson (illness) has no timeline.
Puka Nacua (knee, toe): expected to go on IR, per Sarah Barshop.
Garrett Wilson (concussion): questionable for Sunday vs Buffalo.
Cam Skattebo (hamstring): "full go" for Thursday, per John Harbaugh.
Justin Herbert (left middle finger): "should be good to go" Monday at Baltimore, per Jim Harbaugh.
EPA = expected points added per dropback allowed (pass attempts, sacks and scrambles), Weeks 1–9, nflverse play-by-play. Usage numbers are Week 9 unless noted. Start and sit calls are opinion.
Week 10 start/sit FAQ
Who are the best Week 10 starts?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba at Las Vegas, Tyler Warren vs Miami and Drake Maye vs Detroit in Munich. Miami, Las Vegas and Detroit are all bottom-six pass defenses by EPA allowed per dropback through Week 9.
Which pass defenses should I avoid in Week 10?
Minnesota (the stingiest through Week 9, at Green Bay), Jacksonville (at Tennessee), Seattle (at Las Vegas), the Rams (at Arizona) and Green Bay (hosting Minnesota).
Should I start Christian Watson vs Minnesota?
Yes, but lower your expectations. Minnesota has the NFL's stingiest pass defense, but Watson leads WRs with 45+ targets in yards per target through Week 9. That's our opinion; the numbers are from nflverse and Next Gen Stats.
Who is on bye in Week 10?
Chicago, Denver, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay.
How are these calls made?
From Week 9 usage (targets, carries, snaps), Next Gen Stats efficiency, and each defense's EPA allowed per dropback, Weeks 1–9. The numbers are checked twice; the start and sit calls are opinion.
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