Amon-Ra St. Brown @ MIA: 8 of Detroit's 25 targets (32%) against Minnesota. Miami allows +0.30 EPA per dropback, the most in the NFL.
Tyler Warren vs DAL: 10 of 30 targets (33%) in his first game back from a groin injury. Dallas is #3 softest (+0.23).
Patrick Mahomes vs NYJ: 30/41, 321 yards and 3 TD in Week 8. The Jets are #7 softest (+0.16).
Harold Fannin Jr. @ NO: 12 of 40 targets (30%) and 10-154. He also lost a fumble. New Orleans is #10 softest (+0.11).
Flex plays
Braelon Allen @ KC: 21-147-1 in Week 8, and 17.0% of his carries have gone 10+ yards, #2 of 33 RBs. Breece Hall is expected back, so this is a flex, not an RB1.
Mike Washington Jr. @ SF: 25 of 33 carries in Week 8. Kubiak calls the split a moving target.
Adonai Mitchell @ KC: 9 targets and 46% of the Jets' air yards in Week 8.
Malik Willis vs DET (superflex): 2 TD passes in Week 8, and Detroit is #4 softest (+0.20).
Michael Wilson @ SEA: 15 of 41 targets (37%), but he played through two broken ribs and Seattle is #30 of 32 against the pass. Check his status Friday.
Sit or downgrade
Bills passing game @ MIN (Mon): Minnesota allows -0.21 EPA per dropback, the stingiest pass defense in the NFL. Downgrade, don't bench your studs.
Bears passing game vs TB: Tampa Bay is #31 of 32 (-0.16).
Cardinals passing game @ SEA: Seattle is #30 of 32 (-0.08).
Commanders passing game vs LA: the Rams are #29 of 32 (-0.07).
Ashton Jeanty @ SF: his carries have fallen from 23 in Week 1 to 2 in Week 8 (23, 21, 19, 15, 10, 10, 8, 2). In Week 8 Mike Washington Jr. out-carried him 25-2. On the season he has a 31.5% success rate (#29 of 33) and 3.1 yards per carry (#33). He still caught 3 passes for 64 yards, so he's a PPR flex at best.
Injury watch (check Friday)
Breece Hall (quad): "good to go" and expected to return Sunday at Kansas City, per Ian Rapoport. That cuts into Braelon Allen's work.
Bhayshul Tuten (ankle, foot): not seen at Tuesday's practice. Jacksonville plays Thursday at Baltimore.
Cam Skattebo (hamstring): day-to-day and could be a game-time decision Sunday, per John Harbaugh.
Michael Wilson (ribs): said he broke two ribs in Week 8 and kept playing.
Carnell Tate (shoulder): Tennessee is on bye; he's expected back in Week 10.
EPA = expected points added per dropback allowed (pass attempts, sacks and scrambles), Weeks 1–8, nflverse play-by-play. Usage numbers are Week 8 unless noted. Start and sit calls are opinion.
Week 9 start/sit FAQ
Who are the best Week 9 starts?
Amon-Ra St. Brown at Miami, Tyler Warren vs Dallas, Patrick Mahomes vs the Jets and Harold Fannin Jr. at New Orleans. Miami, Dallas and the Jets are all bottom-seven pass defenses by EPA allowed per dropback through Week 8.
Which pass defenses should I avoid in Week 9?
Minnesota (the stingiest through Week 8, hosting Buffalo on Monday), Tampa Bay (at Chicago), Seattle (hosting Arizona) and the Rams (at Washington).
Should I start Ashton Jeanty in Week 9?
Only as a PPR flex. His carries have fallen from 23 in Week 1 to 2 in Week 8, and his success rate and yards per carry rank near the bottom of the league. That's our opinion; the numbers are from nflverse.
Who is on bye in Week 9?
Pittsburgh and Tennessee.
How are these calls made?
From Week 8 usage (targets, carries, snaps) and each defense's EPA allowed per dropback, Weeks 1–8. The numbers are checked twice; the start and sit calls are opinion.
ChevStats